I had had enough of talk about politics, polarisation and media tirades among different political groups in Egypt that go unchecked or pay no heed to media codes of ethics aimed to rein in these distortions. So I decided to withdraw and not participate in these discussions that destroy more than they build.
Today, news emerged that Blue Nile waters in Ethiopia will be diverted, one day after the return of Egypt’s president from an extraordinary summit discussing problems on the African continent. This triggered a new stream of “griping” about what will happen to Egypt when the Nile is diverted and possible droughts ensue, and how the incumbent regime is to blame. Some even said Ethiopia would not have taken such action if it wasn’t for Egypt’s current weakness — vulnerability they believe is caused by Muslim Brotherhood rule.
I decided to not be involved in this drama and searched for a report I had read some time ago about the Nile water issue. The report was published after the conference on “Prospects for cooperation and integration among the Nile Basin States: Opportunities and challenges” on 25-26 May 2010.
It enlightened me on the issue; most notably that earthquakes are frequent in Ethiopia, especially in the Affar Triangle, along the active African fault line that divides Ethiopia in half forming two plates.
The tectonic plates are pushing further apart, which makes earthquakes measuring more than 5.0 on the Richter scale frequent, as are cracks in Ethiopian rocks that cause rock slides. This has increased the number of fault lines that are encouraged by heavy rainfall, slopes and a layer of silt under boulders that help them to slide, like in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia.
Among Nile Basin countries, Ethiopia is the most deprived of water although it is the main contributor to Nile water, and downstream countries have nothing to do with this. It is because Ethiopia’s terrain is not suitable for major dams to store water, irrespective of the technology used. Nonetheless, Ethiopia is best suited among Nile Basin countries for constructing electricity generating projects that could supply all Nile Basin countries.
But despite this immense potential for generating hydroelectricity, some 88 per cent of the population — according to World Bank figures — is without electricity. Even those who have electricity suffer from repeated power outages.
According to World Bank figures, each citizen’s share in electricity consumption in 2007 came to about 25 KWh per year, while the average consumption of a middle class individual is 500 KWh per year.
The US Bureau of Reclamation carried out an extensive study of the Blue Nile in 1953 and 1963 and identified 26 locations to construct multi-purpose dams along the Blue Nile and its main tributaries. Ethiopia is trying to construct some of these.
The Ethiopian government faces immense challenges in trying to provide enough energy to meet the needs of its people and to support economic growth. Its plan is to increase hydroelectric output fivefold over the next five years at a capacity of 3,125 MW. Currently, there are five more power generation sites under construction; two of them were actually inaugurated but they quickly came to a halt because of geological and technical issues.
In summary, Ethiopia is suffering a great deal and needs a helping hand. Because we ignored our ties to these vital states Ethiopia has turned to the US to assist its renaissance, although I have doubts about genuine US interest in the renaissance of Ethiopia or any developing country.
Second, building the Renaissance Dam could be very risky for Ethiopia despite the benefits. Should we leave our Ethiopian brothers to take the risk or should we study the issue more diligently instead of demanding an aggressive response?
I strongly believe this is a defining moment that should push us to change our policies towards Africa, and seek genuine African unity instead of empty flimsy slogans that we have adopted in the past. Perhaps that way we would all survive together a fate that none of us want or could survive alone.
