Dialogue with an arrogant group that is drunk on false victory is no longer feasible. Being decisive is the only strategic choice for Arabs to save Yemen before it collapses into chaotic civil war or falls into the clutches of Tehran, both of which would be catastrophic.
The alliance that was formed more than one year ago, and includes Cairo, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, is enduring the first tangible test to confront a joint threat. The signs that it will succeed are very promising, and five new countries have joined their battle – one of which is not even an Arab state – which is in itself a great achievement in uniting priorities, expanding cooperation and starting to impose a new regional balance.
Iran was relying that confusion, and thus division, on the Arab front would enable it to manipulate time to its advantage, especially since the fall of Aden seemed to be at hand. Iran anticipated it would be able to impose a new reality before it sat at the negotiating table – if that were to happen – as soon as it closed the deal of a lifetime with Washington.
I believe the Iranians are more cautious than to become directly embroiled in confronting this unexpected assault. It is most likely Tehran will use the opportunity to make progress on the Syria-Iraq front, but without entirely giving up on Yemen. Rather, it will try to take Houthis back to the negotiating table with Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s camp.
Judging by the size of Saudi mobilisation, this is not a brief lightning strike but rather an extended conflict that will dramatically change the face of Yemen.
The writer is a co-founder of Egypt’s Nour Party and serves as the chairman’s assistant for media affairs.
