A unique meeting will take place between US President Barack Obama and the kings and princes of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on 13-14 May at the White House and Camp David. Obama intends to reassure his Gulf allies about the preliminary agreement reached between Iran and six world powers (P5+1) to halt its military nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions.
Many in Washington believe the best way to reassure Washington’s Arab allies is by selling more US weapons to them, as well as boosting US military presence in these countries.
However, such arrangements are not enough to convince the leaders of these countries, who have embarked on a difficult mission to convince the US to sign some form of joint defence agreement to document the US’s commitment to protect Gulf states if they come under foreign attack. Gulf leaders will ask Obama’s administration to send them the latest advanced US weapons, and naturally Obama will welcome the request. However, the more pressing Gulf request, a signed US commitment to Gulf security, will remain unmet.
US-Gulf military relations have grown stronger since the start of the Arab Spring in 2011. Previously, there was extensive US military presence after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the US-led operation to liberate Kuwait. Today, thousands of US soldiers remain in Kuwait at several military bases — most notably Camp Doha and Camp Arifjan. US troops were also based in Saudi Arabia, most notably at Prince Sultan Base, before they moved to Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar in 2003, which is also home to Sayliyah Military Base, a critical headquarters for military operations during the war on Iraq in 2003. Bahrain is home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet which is the navy’s contingent covering the Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Oman Sea, Red Sea and Africa’s East coast. The fleet includes a large number of navy vessels, an aircraft carrier, many combat planes and helicopters, and nearly 20,000 US soldiers.
In 1994, the UAE signed a security cooperation agreement with the US that allowed 5,000 US military personnel to deploy near the Port of Jabal Ali and at Dhafra Air Base. Since 2000, 6,000-8,000 UAE military personnel have trained in the US, while Abu Dhabi signed security deals with private companies, such as Reflex Responses, to bolster UAE military training programmes.
Spending on weapons programmes in Gulf countries rose sharply even before the start of Iran’s nuclear talks. With the rise of oil prices over the past few years, touching $120 per barrel, it made sense to spend so much on weapons. However, it no longer makes sense to continue spending at this rate in light of a sharp drop in the price of oil to half this value, which caused budget deficits in Gulf states.
In 2014, Saudi Arabia signed a deal worth more than $80 billion in military purchases; the UAE spent no less than $23 billion; Qatar spent $11 billion on US weapons in the form of Apache helicopters, Patriot and Javelin air defence systems. The purchase rate of Gulf countries forced Boeing and Lockheed Martin to open permanent sales offices in Doha to serve Gulf clients.
Obama’s understanding and outlook of the Gulf region is unsteady. Therefore Gulf leaders are dismissive of his opinions, especially since he will be out of office soon. In interview with Thomas Friedman for The New York Times after signing the deal with Iran, Obama said he will have a difficult discussion with the US’s Gulf allies. He said he will promise them strong US support against foreign attacks, but will also tell them they need to address political challenges at home. He will further tell Gulf countries that they must also be more effective in resolving regional conflicts, and concluded by saying that buying weapons and having US reassurances may alleviate some Gulf concerns, and “allow them to have more fruitful talks with the Iranians.” I believe Gulf countries should not wait for Obama’s reassurances to stop worrying about Iran returning to the international fold.
Despite all forms of fear mongering about Iran’s return, we must remember, for example, that no less than 400,000 Iranians live and work in Dubai alone, despite a long-standing dispute over several small islands.
Fears over a “big deal” with Iran are unjustified. Washington’s policies in the Gulf are based on preventing any other power from establishing hegemony there, and the Arabs welcome this covertly and overtly.
Arabs always harangue consecutive US administrations over two things: everything the US does, and everything the US does not do. Arabs and their rulers must grow up and take control of their own fate and destiny. They possess the necessary resources but still lack leadership and determination.
