Many newspapers and television channels will not come out in a sign of protest against the Moslem Brotherhoods attempts to dictate their opinion to the media.
The opposition also demands revocation of several presidential decrees of the past few weeks and annulment of decisions taken by the Constitutional commission which has adopted the country’s draft constitution.
The blueprint will be put to a national vote on December 15.
Mass demonstrations and clashes of protesters with the police has become an everyday occurrence in Egypt again, just like two years ago. Only recently it seemed that the testing time for Egypt is almost left behind. But now there is an impression that the country is coming to a dangerous point once again.
Many countries in the region are shaken by the struggle for power. The Egyptian Muslim Brothers are trying to strengthen their anyway strong position. Parties that are related to them are now represented in power structures of Morocco and Libya; they have an impact on the political situation in Jordan. But in these and all the more in other countries of the region, the 'Brothers' are still far from the success that they have achieved in Egypt.
And here an interesting pattern takes shape. While the 'Brothers' or related structures remain in opposition, their popularity among the people is growing. And when they take power in their own hands, like in Egypt, problems begin. What is the reason for that? Presumably, there are a few reasons.
Firstly, it’s easier to expose obvious shortcomings of the existing regimes, than to create a regime, which will satisfy absolutely everybody. This goal, probably, is impossible in principle. But if the society, both before and after the elections, continues respectful dialogue, then the problems will be solved one way or another. But when passions are running high, if one party does not hear the other, then any issue, even the smallest one, will be a cause of confrontation.
And why are the tensions so flared up? Partly it happens due to errors of politicians. But there are also objective reasons. A huge amount of problems, which were not being solved for decades, have accumulated in the region. Social issues are obvious: employment, education, affordable housing. All these difficulties are based on an outdated economy, which modernization is constantly out of question due to lack of money in national budgets. And now, in the era of public shocks, money certainly has not grown.
So, unfortunately, we have to conclude that the region has entered a period of prolonged political and economic instability. National budgets continue to shrink; the population continues to grow; in these circumstances even a wizard would not find the right solution to all problems. That is why right now it is necessary to think not about these issues, but about creating a more or less favorable opportunity for a calm discussion of all these growing problems.
This goal is theoretically achievable. But in practice there are few examples of achieving this goal in such a complex environment. So in fact, the region is on the verge of a «big bang».
Another participant of our discussion, analyst Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, believes that the region has already stepped over this borderline. In his opinion, the aggravation of the situation is provoked not only by internal contradictions, but also by a negative impact from the outside.
"For decades, everything went like on the beaten track. The countries of the region regularly supplied oil and gas to the West. And in general, their ruling regimes suited both the United States and Europe. There always were some conflict situations in the region, but they were not as explosive, and most importantly, not of such a universal, nature, as they are today. However, a new factor has appeared in the scheme: the increasing structural crisis of the Western economy as a whole."
The West is getting weaker, and therefore has less potential impact on the region, which it used to consider a zone of its vital interests. Meanwhile, the crisis has not yet reached those countries, which the West regards as its strategic competitors, and may be it will never get there. First of all, we are talking about China, though not only about it. In the current situation, in order to preserve its influence in the Middle East and North Africa, the West had to gradually weaken the local regimes; and it was necessary to do this before the weakening of the West itself becomes apparent to everybody.
But it was not possible to do it gradually; the Arab spring made amendments here. Its violent anti-Western beginning caused real panic in the West. Therefore Western countries reacted quickly and roughly. Now we must understand, that all the Western leverages still remaining in the region are involved in order to destabilize the situation there quickly and for a long time, triggering a war of all against all. And, as we see, something has already come out of it.
