Mohamed Sayed, 22, has baked bread at his family's bakery in west Cairo for the past decade, but he fears this year may be his last. "We're going bankrupt," he said. "In fact, we're already at that stage."
He is not alone. On Tuesday, Sayed was one of hundreds of striking bakers in flour-stained clothes to descend on Cairo from surrounding cities and block the road outside Egypt's ministry of supply. By law, bakers must sell each loaf they make for the knockdown price of five piasters – about half an English penny. In return, they are supposed to be reimbursed by the ministry of supply. But the bakers say this subsidy only covers two-thirds of the cost. Many also claim that for the last six months they haven't even been paid what is legally theirs.
"We need to feed our families," said Raafat Boheith, another baker from Cairo. "We are currently losing and paying from our pockets."
The bakers' concerns are by no means unique in Egypt this week. For decades, the state has subsidised the cost of food and fuel – essential in a country where around one in four live below the poverty line. But a severe economic crisis has forced the Islamist-led government to not only cut subsidies but also to introduce rationing. On Tuesday, ministers announced plans to introduce a smart-card system that limits each citizen to three small loaves a day.
The card scheme will be trialled in two cities, but Egyptian authorities are unlikely to be able to roll it out nationwide in the near future. In a country where bread is for millions the only significant source of sustenance, there are fears that would trigger a so-called revolution of the hungry and turn the pockets of unrest that Egypt has experienced over the past six weeks into something more widespread.
"Rationing might reduce subsidy expenditure, but it will come at the price of increased social tension," warned Moustapha Bassiouny, an economist at Egypt's Signet Institute. For years, Egyptian leaders have avoided rationing bread, fearing a repeat of the bread riots of 1977, when then dictator Anwar Sadat removed a price cap. Many think this week's move will prompt something similar.
"Bread, freedom and social justice" were the three main goals of the 2011 uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak, according to one popular slogan at the time. Many Egyptians have argued that the last two have not yet been achieved – and this week bread can be added to their list of outstanding demands.
Tensions are already high in Egypt's petrol stations after a shortage of subsidised fuel forced drivers in parts of the country to queue for hours. Fights have broken out between frustrated drivers, while in Cairo and the northern city of Mahalla, bus drivers have shut down major roads in protest.
The government has little choice but to implement its financial reforms. Egypt's foreign reserves have more than halved since 2011. The IMF is refusing to make good on a much-needed and much-delayed loan worth $4.8bn until Egypt reduces its subsidies – which make up around a quarter of its annual budget.
"Frankly, they're stuck," said Bassiouny of the government. "They don't have much room."
